WASHINGTON, D.C. / RankWire.AI / – Commodity prices are set to rise 23% in 2026 as global shocks mount, the World Bank Group said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook on Wednesday. Energy prices are projected to jump 32% this year, ending three straight years of declines. Food commodity prices are forecast to climb about 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, a cumulative increase of 18%. Overall commodity prices are expected to fall 7% in 2027.
The bank said conflict in the Middle East has depleted oil inventories and will lift energy prices to a four-year high. Brent crude is expected to average $91 a barrel in 2026, compared with $69 in 2025. The benchmark is then forecast to ease to $79 in 2027. Low oil stocks leave the world more vulnerable to further supply disruptions. Energy prices are expected to moderate next year.
Global oil supply is forecast to drop 5.2% in 2026. That would be the steepest decline in more than 40 years, excluding the 2020 recession. Oil consumption is expected to fall 2.5%, the third-largest yearly contraction on record after 2020 and 1980. Shortages and high prices are curbing demand, and electrification is cutting oil use, especially in China. Even so, output remains below demand, drawing stocks lower. The conflict is forcing adjustments in how the world produces and consumes energy, the bank said.
Grain disruptions and El Niño threaten harvests
Food prices face pressure from disrupted grain shipments and El Niño, which threaten harvests and affordability. Elevated fuel and fertilizer prices are also raising costs for farmers. Fertilizer prices are expected to increase 14% in 2026, following an early-year surge in urea prices that has since eased. They are forecast to fall back to 2025 levels in 2027. Higher crude prices have also lifted the cost of motor oil for consumers.
Under an adverse scenario in which these risks combine, Brent could average $105 a barrel in 2027. Food commodity prices could rise 12% above the baseline forecast, exceeding their 2022 level. Metals prices are projected to gain 25% in 2026 to a new high, with aluminum, copper and tin at record levels. Investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres is supporting demand, alongside supply disruptions this year.
World Bank makes up to $60 billion available
To help countries cope with higher prices, the World Bank Group has made $50 billion to $60 billion available through existing instruments. That includes $25 billion in pre-arranged financing. The funds can support social safety nets, boost fiscal capacity and provide working capital for firms and farms. The institution has also simplified its ability to mobilize private capital alongside its own resources. It said it is well positioned to invest in young people in developing countries by improving conditions for job creation.
Precious metals prices are forecast to rise 40% in 2026 as investors seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, said commodity markets face several major shocks at once. He said higher energy costs and trade disruptions risk worsening inflation, food insecurity and growth. The priority must be to protect the poorest people, he said.